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Aluminum prices are easy to rise but hard to fall

Sep 10 , 2021
Worries about contraction on the supply side continue to ferment. Guangxi reduced the output of electrolytic aluminum and alumina in September, and attention needs to be paid to the actual implementation; Changji, Xinjiang has requested that output be restricted in August, but other areas in Xinjiang have temporarily restricted production; Qinghai has not yet given specific restrictions; while aluminum in Yunnan Enterprises have begun to turn to resume production, but the progress of the recovery remains to be seen. The unexpected mutiny in Guinea has aggravated the worry of the tightening of alumina supply. We need to pay close attention to further developments in the country. If there is a port closure or production blockage, the domestic alumina supply will be significantly supported. The current bullish atmosphere is sufficient. , Aluminum prices tend to rise but never fall. Overall, the supply side is still worried about contraction, and there is the possibility of continuing to increase. We believe that Shanghai Aluminum is expected to hit 25,000 before the end of the year, but we need to pay attention to the downstream acceptance and the official level of potential intervention risks caused by short-term excessive rises.

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